A recent poll suggests that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will have a dramatic effect on the 2024 race. The question is, will his campaign do more harm to former president Donald Trump or President Joe Biden?
A new poll suggests that RFK Jr.’s candidacy may harm Trump’s campaign even more than Biden’s. There may be more to it than meets the eye.
According to the latest national NBC News survey, the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the third-party vote have a greater impact on former President Donald Trump than Joe Biden. However, the movement created by the other candidates is within the margin of error.
In a new NBC News survey, Trump is 2 points ahead of Biden in a head-to-head match-up.
When the ballot is expanded from five candidates to six, Biden has a 2-point lead: Biden 39%; Trump 37%; Kennedy 13%; Jill Stein 3 %, and CornelWest 2%.
This is because a larger share of Trump supporters in the head-to-head matchup backed Kennedy on the expanded ballot. 15 percent of respondents, who chose Trump initially, chose Kennedy on the five-way ballot. This compares to 7% of those who originally selected Biden.
Moreover, Republican voters rate Kennedy more positively (40% positive, compared to 15% negative) than Democratic voters (16% positive versus 53% negative).
Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster, explained that RFK Jr. “appeals more to Trump voters than Biden supporters” at this time.
Bill McInturff a Republican pollster, who conducted the NBC News survey with Horwitt, said that this study’s results were “different from other surveys.” He then listed two possible scenarios: “One is it’s an anomaly.” Or, two, this is the future, and our polling will be a sign of things to come.
McInturff’s point about the differences between the NBC News survey and other analyses of the same question is accurate. The Hill published a story last month highlighting multiple surveys that showed RFK Jr.’s campaign would harm Biden more.
The majority of polls — both nationally as well as in key states — show that Trump’s lead over Biden is slightly wider when Kennedy’s surname is added.
According to the average polling maintained by The Hill and Decision DeskHQ, Trump is only a fraction of a point ahead of Biden when they face off one-on-one.
When Kennedy is an option, the former president holds a 2-point lead over Biden.
Numerous state-level surveys show the same pattern. In a poll conducted by Emerson College in Michigan, Trump was ahead by 2 points without Kennedy’s name listed and by 4 when Kennedy’s name was included. Another Emerson College poll in Wisconsin showed that Trump’s lead increased to 4 points, from 3 points when Kennedy’s name was mentioned.
This result makes sense, given that Kennedy is a Democrat and supports progressive policies – particularly on climate change. The Kennedy name may also make him more appealing to Democratic voters dissatisfied with Biden.
It is worth noting, however, that Kennedy’s position on vaccines as well as his apparent populist appeal could also attract people on the right who may not want to vote for Trump.
In this case, America is in a waiting-and-seeing mode as the campaign moves forward. One thing is clear: RFK Jr. may very well be a key factor in determining if Trump or Biden win a second term in the White House.
