It’s never clear how much weight we should give to polls. This is especially true for those who come after a major event when emotions are still high.
This one is interesting. According to a YouGov survey of 4,339 Americans, two-thirds believe that political violence will increase in 2024.
They could be right. YouGov’s question was:
Do you believe that the current political climate makes it more or less likely for violent acts to be committed by politicians, or is it the same?
Sixty-seven percent replied, “More likely,” 8 percent “Less likely,” 10 percent “Same as normal,” with 14 percent “Not Sure.”
A report from the poll revealed that respondents who were openly partisan saw political violence as more likely.
It’s interesting to note that both Republicans and Democrats are more likely than others to believe there will be more violence: 69% of Democrats and 70% of GOP registrants expect Trump was the first but not the last target.
This poll should be taken with a pinch of salt. It was conducted just hours after an attempted assassination of a former US President. The question is being asked while emotions are still high. It’s not surprising that people are pessimistic after an event such as this. This poll may have very different results if it is repeated in a week.
Still, I think that it is likely. I said in April there would be unrest this year in the United States.
Inflection points are the major political conventions, as well as the election. As we know, convention season is upon us; the Republican National Convention takes place this week. I think that the former (and probably future) President Trump will be there, hale and hearty and energized with a prominent bandage on his right ear. He will wear it as a badge because he is a marketing expert and understands how symbols can have a powerful impact.
Democrats are scrambling for any salvageable material.
These three events will be the triggers for any political violence. The election is the most important of the three. It’s becoming more likely that Donald Trump will win, especially following Saturday’s attempted assassination. So, you might want to batten down the hatches because these two-thirds of Americans could be right.
This poll may be exaggerated, at least in part. This poll is like a snide television reporter putting a microphone into the face of a person who has just lost their spouse in an accident and asking, “How do you feel?” In a few weeks, a poll would be more accurate in determining how many people are genuinely concerned about political violence.
Honestly, though? You can include me in the “More Likely” group. Gird your loins, folks. It’s still some time until the elections and the inauguration.
