Donald Trump is the first to tell you he’s the frontrunner in the GOP race. Yet, despite this, he’s attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis mercilessly, clearly doing everything he can to prevent him from jumping into the race
According to a new CBS News/YouGov survey, Trump’s efforts to stop DeSantis are based on his significant lead in the GOP primary polls.
The poll asked voters to pick the candidates they would consider supporting for the Republican nomination. They were given the option to choose as many as they wanted, which was fair since it’s still early in the race and there may be more candidates. Then, the voters were asked to select only one candidate for whom they would cast their vote at this time. This method is very effective since voters are often open-minded in primaries and narrow their choices down to one candidate.
Trump clearly leads in both categories. Trump not only has the support from the majority of Republican supporters at this time but also a significant number of people who are considering him as a possible candidate. This extends his support beyond those who currently support him to those that might still vote for him. He also has the highest percentage of votes from those who are considering voting for him.
Trump’s nomination is not a done deal. Only 24% of GOP voters have decided to support Trump, and 27% do not. Trump gets the majority of his support from that 49% of GOP primaries who are open to considering Trump or any other candidate. The majority of Trump’s support comes from GOP primary voters that aren’t committed to him.
In our latest poll on GOP primary, we go beyond the horserace, estimating % of voters even considering various names at this early stagehttps://t.co/tJPAiy1D3q
Enables exploration of who may be persuadable, who wants to hear more about candidates, and what could change…
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) May 2, 2023
Trump has the strongest position of all GOP candidates, but those who are still undecided and not considering Trump are actually more than those who have only considered Trump. This would suggest that the primary is still in flux, despite Trump’s apparent lead.
You can still bet on Trump to win the nomination. It’s a good bet. But these numbers show us why Trump attacks DeSantis so much more than Joe Biden. He knows that his poll lead isn’t secure, and the only way to maintain it is if DeSantis doesn’t enter the race.