It is unclear how candidates might benefit from a president who has a low approval rating campaign. According to the RealClear Politics (RCP), President Joe Biden’s approval of his job is nearly 10 points below the average. This was before Thursday’s announcement of an 8.2% inflation rate. Biden still has travel plans for November 8th, and seems determined to make a difference.
Biden’s influence on the campaign trail appears just as likely as his support for Democrats to benefit Republicans. Some of Biden’s trips are made more uncertain by this uncertainty. He visited Colorado on Wednesday to support Michael Bennet, the incumbent Democrat for Senate. Over the past several elections, Colorado has gone from being purple to being solid blue. Rumours abound that Governor Jared Polis (D), may be considering running for president.
Bennet is nearly eight points ahead of Joe O’Dea in the RCP average. Perhaps the White House staff thought it would make Biden feel that he was contributing in a place where he can’t fail it up. His team probably knows that President Barack Obama was correct when he said “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** up.”
Biden said that his son Beau had “lost his live in Iraq” during his speech. Beau Biden, who was a Judge Advocate General’s Corps Corps member, died in Delaware from brain cancer in 2015. Beau spent seven months in Iraq during his yearlong active service. He returned to the United States in September 2015. Biden’s comments form part of a pattern in which he attempts to tie Beau’s death to his military service. His remarks in Colorado were the most outrageous and received widespread criticism. Bennet was certainly not helped by the appearance and it may have even hurt him. Civiqs reports that Biden’s net approval is -3 in Colorado.
The president will be participating in a grassroots volunteer event along with Oregon Democrats on Friday. He will be attending a reception for Tina Kotek, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful. RCP reports that Kotek’s Republican opponent, Christine Drazan is leading by three points.
RCP Projects a Republican Pick-up at the Governor’s Mansion in Oregon. The White House has sent President Houseplant to save Oregon from the deep-blue trash fire. Civiqs reports that Biden’s approval of work is three points lower in Oregon. Is this the Democratic attempt to win this one?
Pennsylvania is the second. The RCP average shows that Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is nearly 12 points ahead of the incumbent attorney general in the race for governor. There are often coattails that other candidates can use to win in a world where one candidate is winning every statewide race.
The race between John Fetterman (D), and Mehmet Oz, (R), is getting tighter in the other state race to replace Senator Pat Toomey. During the summer, Fetterman held double-digit lead. His lead is now within the margin of error of Emerson and Trafalgar, two of the most reliable polls.
Fetterman’s obvious impairments after a stroke in the primary may explain some of the shift. The interview Fetterman had with MSNBC was the only one that he did. It went viral and even the interviewer asked questions about Fetterman’s cognitive abilities. The obviously cognitively impaired president will appear at a joint event. This strategy makes one wonder who came up with it.
CNBC was told by a senior official of the administration that Biden would be attending a Fetterman fundraiser in Philadelphia on October 20th. Both men have a history of stumbling through difficult situations. It will only take a viral video featuring Biden discussing ending fossil fuels to submerge Fetterman. Civiqs has shown that Biden is only -16 in Keystone State for his job approval. It is amazing how Shapiro is doing in this environment. Fetterman is unlikely to be helped by Biden.
Biden won 2020 after running a campaign out of his basement. For 2022, the best strategy would have been to give Biden a bowl of pudding and send him back down to his basement. Then, you could put him in front Matlock reruns. His continued participation could guarantee Republicans the Senate. It could even be a way for Republicans to make inroads in states like Oregon, which have been long considered deep blue.