Nate Silver, the renowned pollster, is no longer joking around; he’s now saying Democrats are in a serious mess with Joe Biden. In a Monday post on X/Twitter, he stated, “Biden has just reached a new record low for approval (37.4%), at 538.” Dropping out would be a huge risk; there’s a certain threshold below which running is more dangerous. Are we there yet? I don’t really know, but it’s fair to ask.
Silver once thought Joe Biden was the obvious favorite for a rematch with Donald Trump, but his view has changed dramatically due to Biden’s low approval ratings, despite economic improvement. Silver is not the first to warn that Joe Biden’s approval rating was subpar.
Identified three major issues with Biden in February, which have only worsened since then: his approval rating is notably lower than the level that would normally secure reelection, showing no signs of improvement. Biden’s age has always been a major concern; a majority of Americans still view him as being too old to be president.
He said that if he were 10 years younger, he would still be the 65/35 favorite. “But if he is a significant underdog, it’s because of his age.” It’s time to accept the facts if you don’t want Trump to be re-elected or care about the election in other ways. You must adjust to this new reality, and not get stuck in bias based on your old impressions of the race.
Can anyone tell me if any of these issues have improved since June? Not at all.
Silver, though he did not say it explicitly, appears to think that it is probably too late to replace Biden.
What’s clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024
Silver isn’t alone in publicly stating that Joe Biden should not have run for reelection. James Carville, a veteran Democratic strategist, told WABC Sunday that Biden should not have run for reelection.
“The 90s was then, and here we are today.” “We have to make a decision in November and I’m not thrilled about it,” he said. “I was public in saying that I believed President Biden shouldn’t run for reelection. But he did. And it’s just him and Trump. That’s where I stand, and I’m one hundred percent behind President Biden.”
Recent polling revealed that the majority of Biden supporters are voting against Trump and not for Biden.
